688277.SH
MedTechBeijing Tinavi Medical Technology
Orthopaedic surgical navigation & robotics (TiRobot / 天玑)
Chart
At a glance
Beijing-based orthopaedic surgical-robotics maker (TiRobot navigation/positioning systems), listed on the Shanghai STAR market. Reports and trades in RMB. Sits alongside the CN/HK surgical-robotics names; watch installed base and per-procedure recurring revenue.
The call
ThesisWe see limited upside: at ¥15.23 the shares sit 92% above our ¥1.16 intrinsic estimate.
ValuationThe DCF is not meaningful here — its terminal year is still cash-flow-negative — so we anchor on the peer EV/EBITDA multiple rather than the raw intrinsic number.
What's priced inAt ¥15.23, the tape is discounting roughly 82% starting revenue growth versus our 25% — a more aggressive ramp than we underwrite.
LevelsHistory is too thin for a scenario band, so we frame value on the ¥1.16 point estimate and would look to accumulate below ¥0.93 (~25% margin of safety).
Risks to ratingKey risks to the rating: the estimate rests on unreviewed tier-default assumptions, not an owner-reviewed model; debt serviceability is stretched (ebit covers interest only -13.6× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.).
Bottom lineBottom line: sell into strength; downside to our ¥1.16 estimate. Low-conviction call.
Model-derived synthesis of the computed valuation — not investment advice.
Price & volume signals
Technical signals from price history, for your own read of market timing. These never affect the Estimated Price — they sit apart from the valuation by design.
· Only 40 bars — the 50/200-day averages need more history.
Drafted from official evidence. It does not change the Estimated Price until you approve it.
The only official evidence supplied is two CNINFO postings of the 2026 half-year report and its summary (2026-09-11), both neutral, auto-approved machine reads with no extractable figures, and there are no official filings with data at all. With the evidence silent on revenue growth, margin trajectory, order book, or cost structure, no defensible revision to the company's current curve can be grounded in primary sources; the historical series (two revenue years, 55.9% growth, latest operating margin -55.5% and flat) is too thin to extrapolate. I therefore revert each year toward the CURRENT curve, preserving its decay from 25% growth to 2.5% (below the 4.0% terminal cap) and its margin ramp from -55.5% to the 28.0% category-normal level. The key caveat for the human reviewer: the current curve already embeds an unverified assumption of full margin normalization to 28% by Y10, and nothing in the supplied evidence justifies that recovery — it is carried forward only because reverting to the current curve is the mandated default when evidence is absent, not because it is corroborated.
| Y1 FY2026 | Y2 FY2027 | Y3 FY2028 | Y4 FY2029 | Y5 FY2030 | Y6 FY2031 | Y7 FY2032 | Y8 FY2033 | Y9 FY2034 | Y10 FY2035 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 25.00% was 25.00% | 22.50% was 22.50% | 20.00% was 20.00% | 17.50% was 17.50% | 15.00% was 15.00% | 12.50% was 12.50% | 10.00% was 10.00% | 7.50% was 7.50% | 5.00% was 5.00% | 2.50% was 2.50% |
| EBITDA margin | -55.46% was -55.46% | -46.19% was -46.19% | -36.92% was -36.92% | -27.64% was -27.64% | -18.37% was -18.37% | -9.09% was -9.09% | 0.18% was 0.18% | 9.45% was 9.45% | 18.73% was 18.73% | 28.00% was 28.00% |
- Y1 · FY2026 — No official filing figures exist; only the auto-approved 2026 half-year report postings (cninfo, 2026-09-11), which contain no extractable data. Growth reverted to current-curve 25.0%; margin -55.5% held at the flat, latest reported operating level.
- Y2 · FY2027 — Evidence silent on demand and pricing; the half-year report postings give no guidance. Revert to current curve: 22.5% growth, margin -46.2%, implying continued but unverified loss narrowing.
- Y3 · FY2028 — No primary-source signal on revenue trajectory or cost base. Keep current curve: 20.0% growth, margin -36.9%; the loss reduction remains an assumption, not evidenced.
- Y4 · FY2029 — Evidence silent; the two CNINFO items are machine-passed, not human-reviewed, and carry no financials. Revert to 17.5% growth and -27.6% margin.
- Y5 · FY2030 — No filing data on scale-up or reimbursement/pricing. Hold current curve: 15.0% growth, -18.4% margin — still loss-making per the company's own current assumption.
- Y6 · FY2031 — Evidence provides nothing to support or refute mid-horizon margins; revert to current curve: 12.5% growth, -9.1% margin.
- Y7 · FY2032 — Nothing in the supplied primary signals indicates the crossover year for profitability. Keep current curve: 10.0% growth, +0.2% margin; this breakeven remains unverified and flagged for human review.
- Y8 · FY2033 — Evidence silent on operating leverage. Revert to current curve: 7.5% growth, 9.5% margin.
- Y9 · FY2034 — No approved disclosure supports approaching category-normal margins. Hold current curve: 5.0% growth, 18.7% margin.
- Y10 · FY2035 — Terminal year. Evidence is silent, so growth stays at the current-curve 2.5%, within the 4.0% cap. Margin at 28.0% is the category-normal anchor but is not justified by any supplied filing — the human reviewer should test this normalization before approving.
capex, D&A, working capital use disclosed defaults rather than this company's own history — its ingested statements do not carry enough years. The rest of the cash-conversion path is derived from its own filings.
Beta 1.14: Healthcare Products unlevered 1.12 (Damodaran, Global, Jan 2026) relevered at this company's own market D/E 2.8%.
DCF not meaningful (terminal value is 222% of enterprise value — past the 85% ceiling, the explicit forecast carries almost none of the answer) and no same-market peer cross-check exists — treat this estimate as unreliable and lead with Level-3 assumptions.
Not applicable — no same-market peer set for this listing. The DCF is not cross-checked against unrelated-market multiples.
No reliability rule firing — Level 1 passes through.
EBIT covers interest only -13.6× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
Serviceability lens (EBIT ÷ interest) — separate from the WACC and the leverage haircut; never moves the Estimated Price.
Not meaningful — terminal value is 222% of enterprise value — past the 85% ceiling, the explicit forecast carries almost none of the answer; a single-scenario DCF has broken down here.
no same-market peer set — not compared to another market's multiples
Shown side by side, never averaged. Headline uses the DCF, with the peer multiple as fallback when the DCF is invalid.
- · Cost of equity includes a 0.91% country risk premium for the listing market (Damodaran, Jan 2026).
The estimate sits -85% below the market, though the lenses conflict or the data is thin — a low-confidence read, lean on your own judgement.
A reading of the numbers already computed — not a new estimate. It never overrides a method, rule, or approval gate.
Fair value $2.29 — -85% vs price.
Not applicable — no same-market peer set, so the DCF isn't cross-checked against a multiple.
No usable growth volatility — needs ≥3 years of revenue history.
EBIT covers interest only -13.6× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
No reliability rule firing — the Level-1 DCF passes through un-haircut.
Price above its moving averages. Timing only — never part of the value read.
- ·DCF puts intrinsic value at $2.29 (-85% vs price) — reads rich.
- ·No same-market peer set — the DCF stands without a multiple cross-check.
- ·Only one value lens is available — the read rests on a single method, uncorroborated.
- ·No scenario band — history is too thin to gauge how assumption-sensitive the estimate is.
- ·Debt serviceability is a concern: EBIT covers interest only -13.6× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
Fundamentals
Position
No open position. Record a trade on the Portfolio tab and it flows into this card.
Status
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As of 2025-12-31, 688277.SH (TINAVI Medical Technologies) is a loss-making MedTech with revenue of CNY 278.8m and a gross margin near 69%. However, EBITDA is negative at CNY -154.6m and net income is CNY -196.1m.
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The balance sheet shows CNY 264.2m cash against CNY 193.7m total debt, resulting in net cash of CNY 70.4m and a net leverage ratio of roughly 0.46x (net debt/EBITDA) — well below the 2.5x threshold. Book-to-bill and backlog are not provided. No EDGAR filings were detected. Recent signals point to a pending asset acquisition via share issuance and related-party transaction, which could dilute existing shareholders, but no current rule directly captures this event. If net loss is used as a proxy for cash burn, runway is approximately 16 months, but the cash runway rule applies only to pre-revenue Pharma names, not this MedTech. No rule-based flags fired.
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Synthesized by deepseek-v4-flash over already-extracted filing facts, trajectory stats, and computed flags. Interpretation only — it moves no valuation number.
Filings & extraction
- 关于发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易事项的进展公告Sep 27, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于召开2026年第一次临时股东会的通知Sep 27, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于参加科创板2026年半年度医疗器械及医疗设备行业集体业绩说明会的公告Sep 09, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 独立董事提名人声明与承诺--徐扬Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 公司章程(2026年9月)Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
View all filings (+27) ▾Hide older / routine filings ▴
- 独立董事提名人声明与承诺--张瑞君Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 独立董事候选人声明与承诺--徐扬Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 独立董事提名人声明与承诺--李志勇Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于修订《公司章程》、变更公司注册资本及法定代表人的公告Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于董事会换届选举的公告Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于新增认定核心技术人员的公告Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 独立董事候选人声明与承诺--李志勇Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 独立董事候选人声明与承诺--张瑞君Sep 07, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 股东减持股份结果公告Sep 04, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易事项的进展公告Aug 28, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于2026年度“提质增效重回报”行动方案的半年度评估报告Aug 25, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 2026年半年度报告摘要Aug 25, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 第六届董事会第三十四次会议决议公告Aug 25, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 2026年半年度募集资金存放与使用情况的专项报告Aug 25, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 2026年半年度报告Aug 25, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于自愿披露取得医疗器械注册证的公告Aug 06, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于暂不召开股东会审议本次公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金的公告Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易预案摘要Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 董事会关于本次交易前12个月内购买、出售资产的说明Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 董事会关于公司本次交易信息公布前股票价格波动情况的说明Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 董事会关于本次交易符合《上海证券交易所科创板股票上市规则》第11.2条、《科创板上市公司持续监管办法(…Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 董事会关于本次交易符合《上市公司监管指引第9号——上市公司筹划和实施重大资产重组的监管要求》第四条规定…Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 第六届董事会第三十三次会议决议公告Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 董事会关于公司不存在《上市公司证券发行注册管理办法》第十一条规定的不得向特定对象发行股票的情形的说明Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易预案Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 董事会关于本次交易是否构成重大资产重组、关联交易及重组上市的说明Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 关于披露发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金预案的一般性风险提示暨公司股票复牌公告Jul 29, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
News & signals
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
关于发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易事项的进展公告
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
关于召开2026年第一次临时股东会的通知
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易预案摘要
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
- neutralhigh magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
关于披露发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金预案的一般性风险提示暨公司股票复牌公告
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
董事会关于本次交易是否构成重大资产重组、关联交易及重组上市的说明
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
Illustrative data where noted. Not investment advice.