ARGUS
Investment research · fair value
MethodologyRules
Session
2026-09-28 · EOD
OverviewPortfolioRadTech12MedTech16Pharma5Technology6Energy
Pharma · Channels2 names
  1. LEGN
    $18.62▼ -2.56%
  2. MRNA
    $197.28▼ -0.80%
Pharma · Channels
2 names
  1. LEGN
    $18.62▼ -2.56%
    Legend Biotech
  2. MRNA
    $197.28▼ -0.80%
    Moderna
Category overview

Pharma

Radiopharmaceuticals and targeted radiotherapeutics — from revenue to clinical-stage.

LEGNLegend Biotech

Current Price
$18.62
-2.56%
Estimated Price
$14.46
DCF
Bear$6.04
Base$14.46
Bull$14.46
Sep 28, 2026
Variance
-22.34%
vs. price
EBIT covers interest only -8.3× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.Terminal value is 90% of enterprise value — most of this DCF rests on far-future assumptions. Weight the peer cross-check accordingly.
MRNAModerna

Current Price
$197.28
-0.80%
Estimated Price
$21.92
DCF
Sep 28, 2026
Variance
-88.89%
vs. price
Price 89% above estimated priceEstimate shown is the peer P/S-implied price, not the DCF: the discounted-cash-flow model is not meaningful for this name (negative enterprise value). Value it on relative multiples and Level-3 assumptions, not the raw DCF.Revenue is dominated by the COVID vaccine franchise, well past the 40% single-product threshold, and that concentrated base is under a credible competitive and demand threat: Q2 2026 product sales fell 18% YoY and the franchise is in a seasonal trough. Diversification hinges on mNEXSPIKE's European ramp and the mRNA-1010 August 2026 PDUFA; until those scale, concentration risk is the dominant vulnerability.