LEGN
PharmaLegend Biotech
Chart
At a glance
No thesis note yet.
The call
ThesisWe see limited upside: at $18.62 the shares sit 33% above our $12.56 intrinsic estimate.
ValuationThe DCF is not meaningful here — its terminal year is still cash-flow-negative — so we anchor on the peer EV/EBITDA multiple at $12.56 rather than the raw intrinsic number.
What's priced inAt $18.62, the tape is discounting roughly 34% starting revenue growth versus our 25% — a more aggressive ramp than we underwrite.
LevelsHistory is too thin for a scenario band, so we frame value on the $12.56 point estimate and would look to accumulate below $10.05 (~25% margin of safety).
Risks to ratingKey risks to the rating: the estimate rests on unreviewed tier-default assumptions, not an owner-reviewed model; debt serviceability is stretched (ebit covers interest only -8.3× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.).
Bottom lineBottom line: sell into strength; downside to our $12.56 estimate. Low-conviction call.
Model-derived synthesis of the computed valuation — not investment advice.
Price & volume signals
Technical signals from price history, for your own read of market timing. These never affect the Estimated Price — they sit apart from the valuation by design.
D&A, working capital use disclosed defaults rather than this company's own history — its ingested statements do not carry enough years. The rest of the cash-conversion path is derived from its own filings.
Beta 1.18: Drugs (Biotechnology) unlevered 1.18 (Damodaran, Global, Jan 2026) relevered at this company's own market D/E 0.0%.
Estimate shown is the peer P/S-implied price, not the DCF: the discounted-cash-flow model is not meaningful for this name (terminal value is 100% of enterprise value — past the 85% ceiling, the explicit forecast carries almost none of the answer). Value it on relative multiples and Level-3 assumptions, not the raw DCF.
The DCF path is discarded— its final-year cash flow is negative, so it isn't meaningful. The two struck figures are shown for transparency only; they do not feed the 12.56 estimate.
No reliability rule firing — Level 1 passes through.
EBIT covers interest only -8.3× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
Serviceability lens (EBIT ÷ interest) — separate from the WACC and the leverage haircut; never moves the Estimated Price.
Not meaningful — terminal value is 100% of enterprise value — past the 85% ceiling, the explicit forecast carries almost none of the answer; a single-scenario DCF has broken down here.
Shown side by side, never averaged. Headline uses the DCF, with the peer multiple as fallback when the DCF is invalid.
- · No debt on the balance sheet — cost of debt is immaterial to the WACC.
- · DCF not meaningful (terminal value is 100% of enterprise value — past the 85% ceiling, the explicit forecast carries almost none of the answer) — headline falls back to the peer P/S-implied price.
The estimate sits -22% below the market, but with caveats that temper it — a medium-confidence read.
A reading of the numbers already computed — not a new estimate. It never overrides a method, rule, or approval gate.
Fair value $14.46 — -22% vs price.
Peer-implied $12.56 — -33% vs price; DCF sits +15% vs peer.
Moderate ($6.04–$14.46).
EBIT covers interest only -8.3× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
No reliability rule firing — the Level-1 DCF passes through un-haircut.
Price below its moving averages. Timing only — never part of the value read.
- ·DCF puts intrinsic value at $14.46 (-22% vs price) — reads rich.
- ·Peer multiple implies $12.56 (-33% vs price) — reads rich.
- ·The DCF and the peer check AGREE on direction — the read is corroborated across methods.
- ·Debt serviceability is a concern: EBIT covers interest only -8.3× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
Fundamentals
Position
No open position. Record a trade on the Portfolio tab and it flows into this card.
Status
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LEGN screens as non-distressed from a leverage perspective: total debt is zero and cash is $901.9M, so net leverage is not above any threshold. Negative EBITDA (-$136.5M) and net income (-$296.8M) are notable, but the distress rule requires high net leverage alongside thin or negative margins; the balance sheet does not meet that condition.
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Cash burn against reported cash implies runway is beyond 24 months even on the net-loss measure, and LEGN is not a pre-revenue name. No product/customer concentration data or credible competitive threat is present in the supplied facts/signals, and no order book-to-bill, MedTech customer capex, RadTech ARAY, or ISRG compounder conditions apply. No new EDGAR filing was detected. Therefore no advisory flags fired.
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Synthesized by deepseek-v4-flash over already-extracted filing facts, trajectory stats, and computed flags. Interpretation only — it moves no valuation number.
Filings & extraction
No filings ingested yet.
News & signals
- neutrallow magnitudemedium-termtrade-presstoday
Ex-Legend CEO takes helm at biotech startup scouring the globe for drugs
Auto-collected from BioPharma Dive; awaiting human review.
Illustrative data where noted. Not investment advice.