ARAY
RadTechAccuray Incorporated
Radiosurgery & radiation therapy systems (CyberKnife, TomoTherapy)
Chart
At a glance
Designs and sells precision radiation therapy and radiosurgery systems. Revenue mix of product, service, and a growing installed-base recurring stream; watch backlog and China JV dynamics.
Price & volume signals
Technical signals from price history, for your own read of market timing. These never affect the Estimated Price — they sit apart from the valuation by design.
· Only 8 bars — the 50/200-day averages need more history.
Estimate shown is the peer EV/EBITDA-implied price, not the DCF: the discounted-cash-flow model is not meaningful for this name (negative terminal-year cash flow). Value it on relative multiples and Level-3 assumptions, not the raw DCF.
The DCF path is discarded— its final-year cash flow is negative, so it isn't meaningful. The two struck figures are shown for transparency only; they do not feed the 0.51 estimate.
Reliability haircut 33.28%–53.28%: net leverage 7.7× exceeds the 4.0× threshold; trailing net income is negative.
EBIT covers interest only 0.6× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
Serviceability lens (EBIT ÷ interest) — separate from the WACC and the leverage haircut; never moves the Estimated Price.
Not meaningful — negative terminal-year cash flow; a single-scenario DCF has broken down here.
Shown side by side, never averaged. Headline uses the DCF, with the peer multiple as fallback when the DCF is invalid.
- · Market equity weight 16.5% is below the 60% floor — a collapsed share price would otherwise lower the discount rate. Weights floored.
- · Year-5 FCF is still negative after the full explicit period — terminal value is unreliable.
- · DCF not meaningful (negative terminal-year cash flow) — headline falls back to the peer EV/EBITDA-implied price.
Fundamentals
Position
No open position. Record a trade on the Portfolio tab and it flows into this card.
Status
2x. 5% effective rate and ongoing covenant risk. The peer-based Stage 1 valuation is unreliable due to balance-sheet distress and thin margins; a distressed valuation range is required.
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Multiple new EDGAR filings (8-K, two 10-Q, and 10-K/A) have been detected and ingested.
Net leverage estimated at ~6.2x, far exceeding the 2.5x threshold and the 3.5x escalation point. Covenant compliance risk persists.
critical · rule-leverage
ARAY-specific distress: 6.2x net leverage and negative net income. Treat Stage 1 baseline as distress-flagged; the peer EV/EBITDA multiple is not a reliable point estimate.
critical · rule-distress-aray
Balance-sheet distress flagged: high net leverage combined with negative net income and thin margins. Stage 1 peer multiple is unreliable; present a distressed range.
critical · rule-distress-all
New 10-Q filing detected: Q3 fiscal 2026 results showing net loss of $11.8M, negative operating cash flow, and debt of $145.2M net.
info · rule-filing
New 10-K/A filing detected: Fiscal 2025 results with RPO restatement and material weakness.
info · rule-filing
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New 8-K filing detected: Accuray repaid remaining $18.0M of 3.75% Convertible Senior Notes at maturity on June 1, 2026.
info · rule-filing
New 10-Q filing detected: Q2 fiscal 2026 results showing revenue decline, net loss of $13.8M, and restructuring charges.
info · rule-filing
Generated by deepseek-v4-flash. Advisory only — every flag is logged against the rule that raised it for the review loop.
Filings & extraction
- 8-KJun 04, 2026Item 1.02,7.01Source ↗
Accuray repaid the remaining $18.0 million of its 3.75% Convertible Senior Notes at maturity on June 1, 2026, using cash on hand, eliminating its last major debt obligation. The filing contains no operational or strategic updates.
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MD&A highlights- ·Repaid remaining $18.0 million aggregate principal of 3.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 on June 1, 2026, plus $337,500 accrued interest; Indenture satisfied and discharged.
Extracted by deepseek-v4-flash · Jul 22, 2026
- 10-QMay 06, 2026Source ↗
Accuray's Q3 fiscal 2026 results reflect deteriorating financial performance, with a net loss of $11.8 million for the quarter and $47.3 million year-to-date, driven by lower revenue, margin compression from supply chain and inflation headwinds, restructuring charges of $15.4 million, and a surge in interest expense to $24.2 million. The company ended the period with $44.4 million in cash and equivalents, but operating cash flow was negative $9.4 million. Debt stood at $145.2 million net, with a 24.5% effective interest rate on its Term Loan Facility, and the company faces ongoing covenant compliance risk. Management provided cautious near-term guidance, expecting continued margin and cash flow pressure through fiscal 2026. The restructuring plan and sale of tariff refund claims for $6.6 million provide modest relief. Key risks include Nasdaq minimum bid price non-compliance, covenant breaches, and prolonged U.S. market weakness.
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MD&A highlights- ·Total net revenue decreased to $301.0 million for the nine months ended March 31, 2026 from $331.0 million in the prior year period.
- ·Gross profit decreased to $76.4 million from $108.0 million.
- ·Operating loss of $32.0 million compared to operating income of $3.6 million.
- ·Restructuring charges of $15.4 million incurred in fiscal 2026.
- ·Interest expense increased to $24.2 million from $8.7 million due to higher debt and PIK interest.
- ·Net cash used in operating activities was $9.4 million compared to net cash provided of $12.6 million.
GuidanceThe Company expects that gross margins and net income (loss) will continue to be adversely affected by increased material costs and freight and logistics expenses through at least fiscal year 2026. It expects inflation and supply chain challenges to impact cash from operations through at least fiscal year 2026. Reduced U.S. budgets and longer installation timelines are expected to continue impacting revenue through fiscal year 2026. Total restructuring charges for the FY26 Restructuring Plan are expected to be approximately $17 million, substantially all paid in cash in fiscal 2026.
BacklogAs of March 31, 2026, total remaining performance obligations amounted to $70.2 million, of which $53.6 million relates to warranty performance obligations. The Company expects to recognize the significant majority of the additional $16.6 million of remaining performance obligations (primarily deferred training and system installations) over the next 12 months. Open system orders, upgrade sales orders, and customer credits are excluded from these balances because they do not meet the definition of a remaining performance obligation under ASC 606.
Debt / leverageAs of March 31, 2026, total debt net was $145.2 million, comprising a $148.8 million Term Loan Facility, $5.0 million drawn on a Revolving Credit Facility, $18.0 million of Convertible Senior Notes due June 1, 2026, and $7.7 million of accumulated paid-in-kind interest. The weighted-average effective interest rate on the Term Loan Facility was 24.5%. The Financing Agreement includes financial covenants (fixed charge coverage ratio, leverage ratio, minimum liquidity); failure to comply could accelerate debt and require replacement financing. The Company sold $9.0 million of IEEPA tariff refund claims for $6.6 million in cash after quarter end.
Key risks- ·Adverse impacts from geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions including inflation, high interest rates, foreign currency fluctuations, tightening credit markets, conflicts in Iran/Middle East/Russia-Ukraine, and U.S.-China tensions.
- ·Supply chain challenges and increased component and logistics costs negatively affecting gross margins and cash flows through at least fiscal 2026.
- ·Reduced U.S. capital deployment for radiotherapy equipment and longer installation timelines impacting revenue through fiscal 2026.
- ·Potential non-compliance with Nasdaq minimum bid price rule and risk of delisting.
- ·Risk of non-compliance with debt covenants in the Financing Agreement, which could accelerate repayment and require new financing.
Forward-looking · richest in 10-KsOutlook / toneBased on the balance of cash and cash equivalents, available debt facilities, current business plan and revenue prospects, the Company believes it will have sufficient cash resources and anticipated cash flows to fund its operations for at least the next 12 months. However, the Company expects ongoing adverse impacts from geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and reduced U.S. capital deployment for radiotherapy equipment through at least fiscal year 2026.
Strategic priorities- ·Implementation of the FY26 Restructuring Plan to reduce global workforce by approximately 18% cumulatively and lower operating costs, with estimated total charges of $17 million.
Extracted by deepseek-v4-flash · Jul 22, 2026
- 8-KMay 06, 2026Item 2.02,7.01,9.01Source ↗
Accuray filed an 8-K on May 6, 2026, reporting fiscal Q3 2026 results and withdrawing its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The filing includes a press release and an investor presentation, but no specific operational or financial details are provided in the 8-K itself. The withdrawal of guidance suggests near-term uncertainty.
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GuidanceWithdrawn for fiscal year 2026.
Forward-looking · richest in 10-KsOutlook / toneThe company withdrew its financial guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Extracted by deepseek-v4-flash · Jul 22, 2026
- 8-KApr 07, 2026Item 1.01,9.01unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 10-KFeb 17, 2026Source ↗
Accuray's fiscal 2025 10-K/A reveals a company facing persistent operational and macro headwinds: U.S. hospital budget constraints and longer installation cycles are expected to pressure revenue through 2026, while supply chain and inflation continue to weigh on margins and cash flow. The restatement of RPO from $818M to $61M underscores significant disclosure weaknesses and resulted in material internal control deficiencies. Debt levels remain substantial with $188M in borrowings plus $18M in convertible notes, and past covenant compliance issues highlight refinancing risk. Despite these challenges, the absence of MD&A in this filing limits insight into management's near-term playbook. Strategic priorities and capital allocation plans are not explicitly articulated, though the company remains focused on international expansion and product development. Overall, the tone is cautious, with multiple risk factors flagging tariff exposure, IT security, and competitive threats.
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GuidanceManagement expects reduced budgets and longer customer installation timelines in the U.S. to continue impacting net revenue through fiscal year 2026, and expects inflation and supply chain challenges to impact cash from operations through at least calendar year 2025.
BacklogThe Company restated its remaining performance obligations (RPO) from $818.2 million to $60.9 million as of June 30, 2025, primarily due to incorrect inclusion of open system orders, upgrade sales orders, and customer credits as RPO. Backlog conversion remains subject to long installation cycles and customer financing delays.
Debt / leverageAs of June 30, 2025, the Company had $150 million term loan, $20 million revolving credit facility, $20 million delayed draw term loan (all maturing June 6, 2030), and $18.0 million of 3.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026. The credit facilities contain restrictive covenants including fixed charge coverage ratio and total leverage ratio. The Company has not been in compliance with certain similar covenants in the past and required waivers.
Key risks- ·If the CyberKnife or TomoTherapy platforms do not achieve widespread market acceptance, we will not be able to generate the revenue necessary to support our business.
- ·We have substantial indebtedness and may incur other debt in the future, which may adversely affect our financial condition and future financial results.
- ·Enhanced international tariffs, including tariffs imposed by the United States and China, other trade barriers or a global trade war could decrease the volume of product sales in China and increase our costs.
- ·We have identified material weaknesses in our system of internal controls as of June 30, 2025 and are in the process of remediation.
- ·Disruption of critical information technology systems, infrastructure and data or cyberattacks or other security breaches or incidents could harm our business and financial condition.
Forward-looking · richest in 10-KsOutlook / toneManagement's tone is cautious and hedged, citing ongoing headwinds from reduced U.S. hospital capital budgets, longer installation timelines, supply chain disruptions, and tariff uncertainty. For example, they state 'we expect this will continue to have an impact through fiscal year 2026' and note that 'we cannot assure you that we will be able to achieve profitability.' The filing also highlights material weaknesses in internal controls, further tempering confidence.
Capital allocationThe credit agreement restricts the Company's ability to pay dividends or make other distributions. No share buyback programs or M&A appetite are mentioned.
Risk-factor changesThe risk factors were amended to include a new risk regarding material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting identified after the original filing, specifically related to the review of footnote schedules and inadequate controls for RPO disclosure under ASC 606.
Extracted by deepseek-v4-flash · Jul 22, 2026
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- 8-KApr 28, 2026Item 5.02,9.01routineSource ↗
Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.
- 8-KApr 06, 2026Item 7.01,9.01routineSource ↗
Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.
- 8-KMar 19, 2026Item 5.02,9.01routineSource ↗
Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.
- 8-KFeb 17, 2026Item 7.01,9.01routineSource ↗
Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.
- 10-QFeb 17, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 10-QFeb 17, 2026Source ↗
Accuray's Q2 FY2026 results reflect ongoing macro headwinds with revenue declining 12% YoY to $102.2M and a net loss of $13.8M, driven by restructuring charges and lower product sales. The company is executing a restructuring plan to reduce headcount by ~18% and expects total charges of ~$13M. Debt remains high at $135.9M net with an effective interest rate of ~23.9% on the term loan, and the company obtained amendments to delay covenant requirements. Backlog (remaining performance obligations) stands at $59.1M, but open orders are excluded. Management expects continued adverse impacts from inflation, supply chain, and lower US capital spending through FY2026. The company believes it has sufficient liquidity but faces significant covenant compliance risk.
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MD&A highlights- ·The Company expects that reduced budgets and lower capital deployment priority for radiotherapy equipment, along with longer customer installation timelines, in the United States will continue to impact net revenue through fiscal year 2026.
- ·The Company expects that inflation and ongoing supply chain challenges and logistics costs will continue to adversely affect gross margins and net income (loss) through at least fiscal year 2026.
- ·The Company is subject to risks and uncertainties including geopolitical and macroeconomic impacts such as inflation, high interest rates, foreign currency fluctuations, and the China anti-corruption campaign.
- ·The Company believes it will have sufficient cash resources and anticipated cash flows to fund its operations for at least the next 12 months, but is unable to predict the impact on covenant compliance.
- ·During fiscal year 2026, the Company implemented a restructuring plan eliminating approximately 3% of the global workforce in Q1 and approximately 15% in Q2, with total expected charges of approximately $13 million.
BacklogAs of December 31, 2025, total remaining performance obligations amounted to $59.1 million, of which $45.0 million is related to warranties. The Company expects to recognize $14.1 million of other remaining performance obligations over the next 12 months. Open system orders are excluded as they do not include substantive termination penalties.
Debt / leverageAs of December 31, 2025, total debt net was $135.9 million, including $149.2 million term loan and $18.0 million convertible notes. Weighted average effective interest rate on Term Loan is 23.9%. The Company entered into amendments in December 2025 that reduced the delayed draw facility to $18.25 million, delayed the fixed charge coverage ratio requirement to December 31, 2026, and required additional fees. The Company was in compliance with covenants as of December 31, 2025. Warrants issued to lenders include June 2025 Premium and Penny Warrants and December 2025 Super Premium, Premium, and Penny Warrants.
Key risks- ·Geopolitical and macroeconomic impacts including inflation, high interest rates, foreign currency fluctuations, and the China anti-corruption campaign.
- ·Supply chain challenges and logistics costs adversely affecting gross margins and net income.
- ·Reduced budgets and lower capital deployment priority for radiotherapy equipment in the U.S.
- ·Risk of non-compliance with debt covenants under the Amended Financing Agreement, which could accelerate debt maturity.
- ·Potential impairment of goodwill and long-lived assets due to market conditions.
- ·Uncertainty related to the China stimulus program and tariffs.
Forward-looking · richest in 10-KsOutlook / toneThe Company expects that the business of its customers and its own business will continue to be adversely impacted, directly or indirectly, by these macroeconomic and geopolitical issues. The Company expects that gross margins and net income (loss) will continue to be adversely affected by increased material costs and freight and logistics expenses through at least fiscal year 2026. Additionally, reduced budgets and lower capital deployment priority for radiotherapy equipment, along with longer customer installation timelines, in the United States have negatively impacted net revenue since fiscal year 2024, and the Company expects this will continue to have an impact through fiscal year 2026.
Strategic priorities- ·The Company implemented a restructuring plan in fiscal 2026 to reduce its global workforce by approximately 18% and expects total charges of approximately $13 million.
Risk-factor changesRisk factors include recent executive orders to impose new tariffs on global imports and uncertainties regarding impact, retaliations and further escalation, as well as the China anti-corruption campaign and timing of the China stimulus program.
Extracted by deepseek-v4-flash · Jul 22, 2026
- 8-KFeb 09, 2026Item 4.02unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 8-KFeb 06, 2026Item 3.01,9.01unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 8-KFeb 04, 2026Item 2.02,7.01,9.01unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 8-KJan 20, 2026Item 5.02,9.01routineSource ↗
Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.
News & signals
- negativemedium magnitudenear-termmanual2d ago
Owner note: channel checks suggest China install timing slips into Q4
Consistent with sub-1.0 book-to-bill; near-term revenue risk but does not change the installed-base thesis.
Illustrative data where noted. Not investment advice.