688329.SH
TechnologySuzhou Ailong Technology
Hospital pharmacy-automation systems (intelligent dispensing / smart pharmacy)
Chart
At a glance
Suzhou-based maker of hospital pharmacy-automation hardware (automated dispensing, smart medicine cabinets, IV compounding), on the Shanghai STAR market (registry industry: 专用机械 / specialized machinery). Reports and trades in RMB. NOTE: the registry English name reads “Suzhou Iron Technology” — a machine-translation of 艾隆 (Ailong); the business is pharmacy automation, not iron/steel.
The call
ThesisWe see limited upside: at ¥23.37 the shares sit 33% above our ¥15.55 intrinsic estimate.
ValuationOur ¥15.55 base case is a discounted-cash-flow valuation at a 10.4% WACC (Level-1 fair value ¥15.55), before the Level-2 adjustment. No same-market peer set is available, so the intrinsic estimate stands without a multiple cross-check.
What's priced inAt ¥23.37, the tape is discounting roughly 35% starting revenue growth versus our 25% — a more aggressive ramp than we underwrite.
LevelsHistory is too thin for a scenario band, so we frame value on the ¥15.55 point estimate and would look to accumulate below ¥12.44 (~25% margin of safety).
Risks to ratingKey risks to the rating: the estimate rests on unreviewed tier-default assumptions, not an owner-reviewed model; debt serviceability is stretched (ebit covers interest only -0.1× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.).
Bottom lineBottom line: sell into strength; downside to our ¥15.55 estimate. Medium-conviction call.
Model-derived synthesis of the computed valuation — not investment advice.
Price & volume signals
Technical signals from price history, for your own read of market timing. These never affect the Estimated Price — they sit apart from the valuation by design.
· Only 40 bars — the 50/200-day averages need more history.
Drafted from official evidence. It does not change the Estimated Price until you approve it.
The evidence set is entirely composed of CNINFO filing headlines — 艾隆科技's 2025 annual report and summary, the 2026 Q1 report, the 2026 half-year report and summary, plus the exchange's 2025 annual-report information-disclosure inquiry letter and 立信's audit-firm reply to that inquiry — all marked neutral/medium and machine-passed rather than human-reviewed, with no reported figures, segment data, guidance, backlog, or margin detail extracted. Nothing in them quantifies revenue growth, EBITDA, or margin, so no year's growth or margin can be justified above or below the current curve on the basis of these documents. The only qualitative signal is the existence of a regulatory inquiry letter into the 2025 annual report (with an auditor response), which is a scrutiny/uncertainty flag rather than support for accelerating the top line; absent any numeric content it does not justify cutting the path either. I therefore revert every year toward the supplied current curve: growth decaying from 25.0% toward 2.5% in Y9 (inside the 4.0% terminal cap) and EBITDA margin climbing from 3.78% (consistent with the latest ~3.8% operating margin) toward, but not beyond, the 20.0% category-normal level — I do not assume any margin recovery faster than the existing curve, since the evidence is silent. These are placeholders pending human review of the actual filing contents.
| Y1 FY2026 | Y2 FY2027 | Y3 FY2028 | Y4 FY2029 | Y5 FY2030 | Y6 FY2031 | Y7 FY2032 | Y8 FY2033 | Y9 FY2034 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 25.00% was 25.00% | 22.19% was 22.19% | 19.38% was 19.38% | 16.56% was 16.56% | 13.75% was 13.75% | 10.94% was 10.94% | 8.12% was 8.12% | 5.31% was 5.31% | 2.50% was 2.50% |
| EBITDA margin | 3.78% was 3.78% | 5.81% was 5.81% | 7.84% was 7.84% | 9.86% was 9.86% | 11.89% was 11.89% | 13.92% was 13.92% | 15.95% was 15.95% | 17.97% was 17.97% | 20.00% was 20.00% |
- Y1 · FY2026 — No numeric content in the 2025 annual report, 2026 Q1 or 2026 half-year headlines, so growth stays at the current-curve 25.0% and margin at 3.78%, in line with the latest ~3.8% operating margin; the annual-report inquiry letter is noted only as an uncertainty flag.
- Y2 · FY2027 — Evidence silent on segment mix or orders; reverting to the current curve's 22.19% growth and 5.81% margin. The auditor reply to the exchange inquiry contains no margin or revenue figures to justify a deviation.
- Y3 · FY2028 — No guidance or contract data in any of the supplied filings; growth held at 19.38% and margin at 7.84% per the current curve rather than assumed higher on the improving-margin trend alone.
- Y4 · FY2029 — Annual report, Q1 and half-year headlines provide no quantified outlook; reverting to 16.56% growth and 9.86% margin. No margin recovery beyond the existing curve is assumed.
- Y5 · FY2030 — Evidence is silent, so mid-horizon growth stays at 13.75% and margin at 11.89%; the regulatory inquiry into the 2025 annual report argues against extrapolating any acceleration.
- Y6 · FY2031 — No filing detail on revenue drivers or cost structure; reverting to 10.94% growth and 13.92% margin from the current curve, with margin still well below the 20% category norm.
- Y7 · FY2032 — Nothing in the CNINFO disclosures supports changing the late-horizon path; growth held at 8.12% and margin at 15.95%, continuing the gradual approach toward — not a jump to — the category-normal margin.
- Y8 · FY2033 — Evidence silent on terminal conditions; reverting to 5.31% growth and 17.97% margin. The inquiry letter and auditor reply give no basis for a steeper margin ramp.
- Y9 · FY2034 — Final year held at the current curve's 2.5% growth, comfortably under the 4.0% terminal cap, with margin at the 20.0% category-normal level; no evidence justifies exceeding that ceiling.
capex, D&A, working capital use disclosed defaults rather than this company's own history — its ingested statements do not carry enough years. The rest of the cash-conversion path is derived from its own filings.
Beta 1.44: Machinery unlevered 1.33 (Damodaran, Global, Jan 2026) relevered at this company's own market D/E 10.2%.
Not applicable — no same-market peer set for this listing. The DCF is not cross-checked against unrelated-market multiples.
No reliability rule firing — Level 1 passes through.
EBIT covers interest only -0.1× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
Serviceability lens (EBIT ÷ interest) — separate from the WACC and the leverage haircut; never moves the Estimated Price.
no same-market peer set — not compared to another market's multiples
Shown side by side, never averaged. Headline uses the DCF, with the peer multiple as fallback when the DCF is invalid.
- · Cost of equity includes a 0.91% country risk premium for the listing market (Damodaran, Jan 2026).
The estimate sits -33% below the market, though the lenses conflict or the data is thin — a low-confidence read, lean on your own judgement.
A reading of the numbers already computed — not a new estimate. It never overrides a method, rule, or approval gate.
Fair value $15.55 — -33% vs price.
Not applicable — no same-market peer set, so the DCF isn't cross-checked against a multiple.
No usable growth volatility — needs ≥3 years of revenue history.
EBIT covers interest only -0.1× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
No reliability rule firing — the Level-1 DCF passes through un-haircut.
Price above its moving averages. Timing only — never part of the value read.
- ·DCF puts intrinsic value at $15.55 (-33% vs price) — reads rich.
- ·No same-market peer set — the DCF stands without a multiple cross-check.
- ·Only one value lens is available — the read rests on a single method, uncorroborated.
- ·No scenario band — history is too thin to gauge how assumption-sensitive the estimate is.
- ·Debt serviceability is a concern: EBIT covers interest only -0.1× — operating profit does not cover the interest bill.
Fundamentals
Position
No open position. Record a trade on the Portfolio tab and it flows into this card.
Status
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688329.SH (Suzhou Ailong Technology, STAR Market) is a profitable but thinly-margined automation equipment maker — not a pre-revenue pharma name and not a radiation-therapy company — so the Pharma cash-runway rule and the RadTech book-to-bill rule are out of scope on this fact set. The balance sheet is the story: TTM EBITDA of CNY 16.7m against net debt of CNY 61.2m (gross debt CNY 184.2m less cash CNY 123.0m) puts net leverage at ~3.66x, above the 2.5x flag line and past the 3.5x escalation trigger; on a gross basis, debt is ~11.0x EBITDA.
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Margins are thin: a 49.2% gross margin collapses to 3.8% EBITDA margin and 4.5% net margin, implying roughly CNY 201m of operating expense against CNY 442m of revenue. Offsets: net income is positive (CNY 19.8m), book value is CNY 800.5m, and cash covers ~67% of debt, so this reads as a leverage-quality concern rather than near-term solvency risk. Backlog is null, so order momentum and customer-capex direction cannot be tested and no MedTech capex-cycle flag is supportable. No peer multiple, share price, or debt maturity schedule is in the fact set, so the distressed range the distress rule requires can only be framed qualitatively here, and the refinancing-within-12-months escalation trigger is unverifiable. Filings: no EDGAR ingestion (empty summaries); six SSE announcements are queued, including the 2025 audit report and 2025 dividend plan, so the fact set may lag reported results.
Net leverage ~3.66x (net debt CNY 61.2m / TTM EBITDA CNY 16.7m) exceeds the 2.5x flag line and breaches the 3.5x escalation threshold. Gross debt/EBITDA is ~11.0x. Note the small EBITDA denominator flatters the ratio; no debt maturity schedule was provided, so the refinancing-within-12-months escalation cannot be assessed.
critical · rule-leverage
High net leverage (~3.66x) combined with thin margins (3.8% EBITDA, 4.5% net) means the Stage 1 peer-multiple output overstates fair value — treat it as unreliable and present a distressed haircut range rather than a single point estimate. The fact set contains no peer EV/EBITDA multiple or share price, so the range can only be framed qualitatively, not numerically.
elevated · rule-distress-all
No EDGAR filing detected or ingested (filing summaries empty); this issuer reports via the Shanghai exchange. Six announcements are queued/not yet ingested, including the 2025 audit report, the 2025 profit distribution plan, the related-party transaction budget for 2026, and the legal opinion on cancellation of unvested restricted shares — the underlying figures here may lag the latest disclosure.
info · rule-filing
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Synthesized by deepseek-v4-flash over already-extracted filing facts, trajectory stats, and computed flags. Interpretation only — it moves no valuation number.
Filings & extraction
- 艾隆科技关于召开2026年半年度业绩说明会的公告Sep 16, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 苏州艾隆科技股份有限公司2026年度“提质增效重回报”行动方案的半年度评估报告Aug 24, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2026年半年度报告摘要Aug 24, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于2026年半年度计提及转回资产减值准备的公告Aug 24, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于新增认定核心技术人员的公告Aug 24, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
View all filings (+26) ▾Hide older / routine filings ▴
- 艾隆科技2026年半年度报告Aug 24, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于2025年员工持股计划锁定期届满暨解锁条件成就的提示性公告Jun 24, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于2025年年度报告的信息披露监管问询函的回复公告Jun 23, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 立信会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)对《关于苏州艾隆科技股份有限公司2025年年度报告的信息披露监管问询函…Jun 23, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2025年年度权益分派实施公告Jun 22, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 北京观韬律师事务所关于苏州艾隆科技股份有限公司差异化权益分派事项的法律意见书Jun 22, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于调整2025年度利润分配方案每股现金分红金额的公告May 18, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2025年年度股东会决议公告May 15, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 北京观韬律师事务所关于苏州艾隆科技股份有限公司2025年年度股东会的法律意见书May 15, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于召开2025年年度暨2026年第一季度业绩说明会的公告Apr 28, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2025年年度股东会会议资料Apr 28, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于股份回购实施结果暨股份变动的公告Apr 27, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于使用部分暂时闲置自有资金购买理财产品的公告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2025年审计报告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技董事会审计委员会关于2025年度会计师事务所的履行监督职责情况报告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2026年第一季度报告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技董事会对在任独立董事独立性自查情况的专项意见Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2025年年度报告摘要Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2025年年度报告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 上海君澜律师事务所关于苏州艾隆科技股份有限公司2023年及2024年限制性股票激励计划作废部分已授予尚…Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2025年度独立董事述职报告(江其玟)Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于2026年度日常关联交易额度预计的公告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技2025年度非经营性资金占用及其他关联资金往来情况汇总表的专项审计报告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于2026年向银行申请综合授信额度的公告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技关于2025年年度利润分配方案的公告Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
- 艾隆科技董事、高级管理人员薪酬管理制度Apr 20, 2026unprocessedSource ↗
Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.
News & signals
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
艾隆科技关于召开2026年半年度业绩说明会的公告
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
艾隆科技关于2026年度日常关联交易额度预计的公告
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
艾隆科技关于2025年年度利润分配方案的公告
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
艾隆科技2025年度非经营性资金占用及其他关联资金往来情况汇总表的专项审计报告
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
- neutralmedium magnitudemedium-termcninfotoday
艾隆科技2025年审计报告
CNINFO announcement. Awaiting human review.
Illustrative data where noted. Not investment advice.