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  1. SPCX
    $148.68▲ +0.44%
  2. 688329.SH
    ¥23.37▲ +0.21%

SPCX

Technology

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

Space launch vehicles & satellite broadband (Falcon, Starship, Starlink)

148.68
▲ 0.65 (+0.44%)
Needs attentionTwo customers account for roughly 38% of Q2 revenue — below the 40% single-customer threshold, so the rule has not fired, but the margin of headroom is thin and management itself names concentration a key watch item. AI Solutions & Infrastructure is ~28% of Q2 revenue, also under threshold. Re-test on the next quarter; a single customer crossing 40% or a credible competitive threat to the AI or launch franchise would escalate this.
Price · volume · estimated price

Chart

148.68
Sep 25, 2026 · Vol 54.4M
148.68
Thesis

At a glance

Space launch and satellite-communications company. Recently public with a thin filing history — tracked on live price only; no Estimated Price computes until audited multi-year statements land.

Fundamentals, valuation, and filings will populate here once ingestion runs for SPCX.
Market signals · technical

Price & volume signals

Technical signals from price history, for your own read of market timing. These never affect the Estimated Price — they sit apart from the valuation by design.

Trend
Above averages
price vs SMAs
RSI (14)
62
neutral
Volume trend
rising
+11% (10 vs 10)
SMA 20
146.46
SMA 50
136.46
SMA 200
n/a
Position

Position

No open position. Record a trade on the Portfolio tab and it flows into this card.

Company status · synthesized

Status

Full history →Sep 28, 2026
What happened

—

Where it stands

SPCX is barely two months past its June 2026 IPO and is operating in hyper-scale mode. Q2 revenue nearly doubled to $7,814M with the operating loss narrowing to $(143)M — essentially breakeven at the operating line — and AI Solutions & Infrastructure has become the growth engine at $2.2B versus $311M a year earlier.

Read more ▾

The capital structure was reshaped by the $85.7B IPO plus a $25B senior note issuance, lifting cash to $93.5B and retiring the $20B bridge loan and the expensive X/xAI subsidiary debt, at a $1.5B extinguishment cost. On the stated tests, leverage discipline does not fire: with $39.4B of debt against $93.5B of cash the company is in a net cash position, and the bridge repayment pushes any refinancing well outside the 12-month window — the gross debt figure overstates the risk here. Balance-sheet distress also does not trigger, since the thin negative operating margin is paired with net cash rather than high net leverage; the $41.9B accumulated deficit is an artifact of cumulative investment, not a solvency signal today. The genuine watch items are capital intensity and concentration: $28.5B of capex in six months, $12.6B of construction-in-progress, and $13.4B of 'other financings' tied to failed sale-leasebacks for AI infrastructure — a financing channel worth monitoring closely because it sits outside conventional debt metrics — plus two customers at roughly 38% of Q2 revenue, just under the 40% single-customer threshold. The 8-K is a bare Item 2.02 event notice with no substantive content beyond confirming the earnings release. No signals were provided.

Active flags
  • Two customers account for roughly 38% of Q2 revenue — below the 40% single-customer threshold, so the rule has not fired, but the margin of headroom is thin and management itself names concentration a key watch item. AI Solutions & Infrastructure is ~28% of Q2 revenue, also under threshold. Re-test on the next quarter; a single customer crossing 40% or a credible competitive threat to the AI or launch franchise would escalate this.

    watch · rule-concentration

  • New EDGAR filing detected and ingested: 8-K dated August 4, 2026 (Item 2.02 earnings release notice, Exhibit 99.1 referenced but not included in available text). No incremental financial or qualitative content extractable.

    info · rule-filing

  • New EDGAR filing detected and ingested: Q2 2026 10-Q (first since the June 2026 IPO). Discloses $7,814M quarterly revenue, $(143)M operating loss, $93.5B cash, $39.4B debt, $41.9B accumulated deficit.

    info · rule-filing

What's ahead

—

Synthesized by deepseek-v4-flash over already-extracted filing facts, trajectory stats, and computed flags. Interpretation only — it moves no valuation number.

EDGAR · diffed daily

Filings & extraction

  • 8-KAug 14, 2026Item 2.01,3.02,9.01unprocessed
    Source ↗

    Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.

  • 8-KAug 04, 2026Item 2.02,9.01
    Source ↗

    This 8-K filed August 4, 2026 is a bare-bones event notice: it states that Space Exploration Technologies Corp. issued an earnings release announcing results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 under Item 2.02. The filing contains no MD&A, financial figures, guidance, backlog, debt, risk, capex, or capital-allocation commentary. The press release itself is referenced but not included in the available text, so no substantive qualitative business insights can be extracted from this document.

    Show extraction ▾

    Extracted by deepseek-v4-flash · Aug 13, 2026

  • 10-QAug 04, 2026
    Source ↗

    SpaceX's first 10-Q since its June 2026 IPO shows a company in hyper-scale mode: Q2 revenue nearly doubled to $7,814M and the operating loss narrowed to $(143)M, while the $85.7B IPO plus a $25B senior note issuance lifted cash to $93.5B and refinanced away the $20B bridge loan and expensive X/xAI subsidiary debt at a cost of $1.5B in extinguishment losses. AI is now the growth engine — AI Solutions & Infrastructure revenue reached $2.2B in Q2 versus $311M a year earlier — while Space and Connectivity are supported by $47.5B of backlog and $14.3B of deferred revenue. The offset is extraordinary capital intensity: $28.5B of capex in six months, $12.6B of construction-in-progress, and $13.4B of 'other financings' tied to failed sale-leasebacks for AI infrastructure. With $39.4B of debt, an accumulated deficit of $41.9B, and two customers at roughly 38% of Q2 revenue, leverage, execution, and concentration are the key watch items as management pursues Starship deployment, higher launch cadence, and AI monetization.

    Show extraction ▾
    MD&A highlights
    • ·Q2 2026 revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7,814M from $4,071M; six-month revenue rose to $12,508M from $8,138M, led by the AI segment (AI Solutions & Infrastructure revenue of $2,194M in Q2 versus $311M a year earlier) and Connectivity (Q2 revenue of $4,291M versus $2,588M).
    • ·Completed a $135.00/share IPO in June 2026, selling 638.9M Class A shares and realizing net proceeds of $85,675M after $575M of underwriting commissions and offering costs; all redeemable convertible preferred stock converted to common stock, Class C was reclassified to Class A, and Class D was eliminated.
    • ·Completed the xAI Merger on February 2, 2026; the AI segment carries $11,130M of goodwill at June 30, 2026. The March 2025 X Merger had brought X and X.AI Corp. under xAI.
    • ·Operating loss narrowed to $(143)M in Q2 2026 from $(970)M in Q2 2025; six-month net loss attributable to shareholders widened to $(5,488)M from $(1,536)M, reflecting $1,545M of debt-extinguishment losses and $1,153M of extinguishment premiums paid.
    • ·Cash and cash equivalents rose to $93,522M at June 30, 2026 from $24,747M at December 31, 2025; total assets reached $192,770M and backlog reached $47,461M.
    • ·H1 2026 purchases of property, plant, and equipment totaled $28,476M versus $6,965M a year earlier; construction-in-progress was $12,554M, primarily AI infrastructure and facilities.
    • ·A five-for-one forward stock split of Class A, B, and C common stock was effected in May 2026; all share and per-share data were retroactively adjusted.
    • ·Held 18,712 Bitcoin units with a fair value of $1,098M at June 30, 2026 (cost $661M), down from $1,637M at December 31, 2025.
    Backlog

    Backlog totaled $47,461M at June 30, 2026, of which $14,286M was recorded as deferred revenue. Approximately 56% of backlog is expected to be recognized within one year, ~34% within one to three years, and 10% thereafter. Backlog excludes optional purchases that do not represent material rights and constrained variable consideration.

    Debt / leverage

    In June 2026, the Company issued $25,000M of senior unsecured SpaceX Notes (five tranches maturing 2031-2056; weighted-average maturity 11.7 years; rates 5.350%-6.650%, weighted average 5.855%) and used the proceeds to repay in full the $20,000M SpaceX Bridge Loan. The bridge loan, entered in March 2026, had refinanced the X B-1 ($6,504M) and X B-3 ($5,966M) term loans, the xAI Fixed and Floating Rate Term Loans ($995M each), and the $3,000M xAI 12.5% Secured Senior Notes; extinguishments produced a $1,526M loss plus $18M on the bridge loan, with prepayment penalties of $425M, $221M, and $518M. The SpaceX Credit Facility was amended in May 2026 to increase capacity to $5,000M (with a $2,000M letter-of-credit sublimit) and matures May 19, 2031. A technical default arising from the xAI acquisition debt was waived and cured via amendment on March 2, 2026. Total debt and finance leases were $39,364M net at June 30, 2026, including $13,406M of other financings, of which $13,329M relates to three failed sale-leaseback transactions on AI infrastructure (related-party balances of $2,039M current and $11,290M long-term).

    Key risks
    • ·Starship development and deployment, target launch cadence, and expansion of manufacturing and operational capacity may not be achieved as planned.
    • ·Ability to scale and monetize AI products, services, and compute infrastructure, including obtaining sufficient power, GPUs, and other critical components, is unproven.
    • ·Customer concentration: Customer A represented 18.3% of Q2 2026 revenue (across all three segments) and Customer B represented 19.5% (AI segment); no other customer exceeded 10%.
    • ·Regulatory and licensing risk: the FCC approved the EchoStar Spectrum Transaction on May 12, 2026, and the spectrum licenses were transferred to the Trust on May 22, 2026, but the Spectrum Acquisition Closing to the Company had not occurred as of June 30, 2026.
    • ·High capital intensity and execution risk from continued buildout of AI infrastructure, launch sites, satellites, and facilities, including reliance on failed sale-leaseback financings.
    • ·Litigation exposures referenced in the notes include a European Commission fine, Dutch data-protection class actions, and Jane Doe v. X.AI Corp. and X.AI LLC.
    • ·Newly public company risks, including capital-markets volatility and the trading price of Class A common stock, and the risk of not achieving stated growth plans.
    Forward-looking · richest in 10-Ks
    Outlook / tone

    The filing's forward-looking statements describe expectations for 'the development and deployment of Starship, the size and growth of our various existing and future markets, demand for our products and services, our target launch cadence and expansion of our manufacturing and operational capacity,' the ability to 'scale and monetize our AI products, services and compute infrastructure,' and 'the amount and timing of our annualized revenue run-rate' and capital expenditures; management cautions that actual results could differ materially due to the risks described in the filing and in the final IPO prospectus.

    Strategic priorities
    • ·Develop and deploy Starship and increase launch cadence to provide high-cadence, reliable, and affordable access to space.
    • ·Scale the Starlink Connectivity business across consumer, enterprise, and government customers, including Starlink Mobile offerings.
    • ·Scale and monetize the AI platform — Grok, consumer and enterprise AI solutions, X, and AI computational infrastructure.
    • ·Expand manufacturing and operational capacity and scale operations efficiently.
    • ·Pursue acquisitions and strategic partnerships (e.g., the xAI Merger, an option investment in Anysphere Inc. in April 2026, and the Mesh Optical Technologies Corporation acquisition in May 2026) and manage integration risks.
    • ·Obtain and maintain required regulatory approvals, licenses, and spectrum authorizations, including completing the EchoStar spectrum acquisition.
    Capex / expansion

    H1 2026 capital expenditures were $28,476M (versus $6,965M in H1 2025), with construction-in-progress of $12,554M at June 30, 2026 'primarily comprised of ongoing construction and expansion of the facilities and equipment as well as AI infrastructure that has not yet been placed in service'; forward-looking statements flag the amount, nature, and timing of capital expenditures as a key assumption, but no explicit forward capex figure is provided in this filing.

    Capital allocation

    Capital allocation actions in H1 2026 were dominated by the IPO ($85,675M net proceeds), the $25,000M SpaceX Notes issuance (proceeds used to repay the $20,000M bridge loan and for general corporate purposes), and $28,476M of capital expenditures partly funded by failed sale-leaseback financings ($13,406M of other financings). The Company also repurchased $4,426M of common and redeemable convertible preferred stock (including from current/former xAI employees and existing shareholders), made net marketable-security purchases of $6,382M, and paid no dividends; no formal capital-allocation policy is disclosed.

    Extracted by deepseek-v4-flash · Aug 13, 2026

  • 8-KJun 16, 2026Item 1.01,3.02,9.01unprocessed
    Source ↗

    Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.

  • 8-KJun 15, 2026Item 3.02,3.03,5.02,5.03,7.01,8.01,9.01unprocessed
    Source ↗

    Facts ingested; qualitative extraction pending.

View all filings (+4) ▾
  • 8-KJun 26, 2026Item 8.01,9.01routine
    Source ↗

    Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.

  • 8-KJun 23, 2026Item 8.01,9.01routine
    Source ↗

    Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.

  • 8-KJun 22, 2026Item 7.01,8.01,9.01routine
    Source ↗

    Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.

  • 8-KJun 17, 2026Item 5.02routine
    Source ↗

    Routine 8-K — kept for the record, not extracted.

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Illustrative data where noted. Not investment advice.